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And the Revenue Model is………What?

Tuesday, May 26th, 2009

Twitter’s gradual roll-out of non-US mobile network operator “deals” continues with their blog announcement that Vodafone New Zealand has gone live with a short-code SMS service; Australia is allegedly joining soon. This comes on the tail of Vodafone in the UK, and all the Canadian operators joining US operators in enabling Twitter users to send and receive tweets via text messages.

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Everyone Tweets. Nobody makes money.

For a company that has no visible, or public revenue model (nor any driving need to soon create one, apparently), Twitter’s engagement with operators to provide access the service across their messaging networks is perplexing. Mobile operators worldwide make a lot, and I mean a lot, of their revenues (and even more of their profit margins) out of text messaging. In most mobile markets, rampant competition and subscriber churn rates lead operators to offer value “bundles” (or packs, caps, whatever) of usage (minutes, texts, megabytes or dollar values). Twitter’s existing operator deals provide for regularly-charged mobile-originating (MO) message, and free (to the subscriber) updates, or mobile-terminating (MT) messages.

Now this isn’t a bad deal per se – the operator gets some network usage in terms of SMS (so no cannibalization of existing revenues) and to be fair, “on-net” (i.e. on a single network, not between subscribers on different networks) SMS traffic is about the cheapest cost an operator has (in real terms it’s fractions of a cent per message, which explains why SMS can be a very, very profitable exercise for the operator). But to be clear, it’s Twitter that gets the subscriber engagement, not the MNO – the operator’s value-add is primarily to do something that (eventually) all of its competitors will do as well.

Other channels for mobile Twitter usage are similarly anonymous and commoditized. Mobile sites like m.twitter.com (and m.tweete.net) are some of the more currently trafficked destinations through WAP gateways, while smartphone clients (I use TwitterBerry, for example) similarly use mobile data, but in small amounts at an increasingly lower cost.

As the mobile consumer price per MB heads towards zero (and with the likes of O2 introducing all-you-can-eat data plans, one could argue that it’s already there), operators are effectively giving away one of the few network assets they can use to engage (and monetise) subscribers; in this case it’s their SMS messaging gateway, which is an “enabler” (other common mobile enablers include mobile location centres, MMS gateways, billing/charging platforms etc). Was the internal business case for Twitter just too hard for the MNO product managers to get their heads around?

Perhaps it was just a case of internal project costs being considered too high to open up the network. Or to bill subscribers in some way. Industry groups like the GSMA (with the OneAPI initiative) are working to bring readily-adoptable standard interfaces to web developers to use and create value with mobile enablers (and I should know, because we’re working on this initiative and will soon launch a pilot service based on our OneAPI implementation). Already, many mobile networks have third-party APIs and interfaces that would have allowed some form of value to be added to a Twitter service.

Or maybe, just maybe, the operators didn’t see Twitter over SMS as an innovation opportunity.

Either way, it is well-documented that the major social networks are suffering from the lack of scalable business models. Mobile operator engagement represents a massive revenue opportunity to engage and add value to mobile use of social networks. And it just seems odd that neither the likes of Vodafone, the North American mobile operators, or Twitter themselves (Kevin Thau, are you reading this?) saw the opportunity worth pursuing.

Cloudland Redux

Friday, April 17th, 2009

I remember my parents once telling me that they first met at Cloudland, a historic Brisbane dance hall once located in Bowen Hills. The original Cloudland is a now distant memory, having been demolished in 1982.

However I had the the pleasure of attending AIMIA’s Networking Event at the “new” Cloudland on Ann Street this evening and have one thing to say – “Wow”. Cloudland is a new entertainment venue in Brisbane’s Fortitude Valley, with several bars, a restaurant, and a couple of function areas. But what a venue! An alleged A$10 million fitout has made a location which is very, very surreal. Unbelievable, even – I’ve been to clubs and bars in a lot of cities around the world and I have never, ever seen one that even comes close to matching it in a design sense.

Had fun catching up with a lot of people from the Brisbane interactive media scene – there’s a remarkable amount of creative work that goes on up here that is largely unnoticed by our southern cousins. Brisbane is really becoming a hub of sorts for a variety of digital innovations, be they gaming, mobile development, or digital media. Kudos to Michael, Chris, Hannah and the rest of the AMIA Queensland team for a terrific event.

When Good Social Networks Go Bad

Monday, March 23rd, 2009

Well, it wasn’t that the actual social network itself became evil, it was just the messenger.

Earlier today I received an e-mail from a customer asking if I knew about a certain website. I was in meetings all morning, and only quickly scanned the mail, and believed the URL referred to one of the customer’s own sites.  So, I wasn’t overly concerned.  Fortunately, other members of the team were in the office when the calls came.

Turns out a phisher - of sorts – went to the trouble of registering a URL that was uncannily similar to one owned by our customer, made it redirect to one of the excellent services we operate on behalf of customers, and used Twitter to promote his or her own self-believed brilliance as a comedian by suggesting it was a URL run by our customer.

It’s turned up enough in Twitter searches today that I won’t glorify the URL here; suffice it to say that someone out there thinks they are terribly clever because they can register a domain on GoDaddy and write maybe 6 lines of PHP.  Genius, that.  Must think they are really smart.

Whoever you are, please get a life.

Is Twitter the new Facebook?

Sunday, March 22nd, 2009

Since the beginning of the year, I’ve noticed more and more mainstream media mentions of Twitter.  I’m sure some of this momentum is attributable to the much-publicized usage of Twitter by the Obama campaign – the now-famous “We just made history” tweet. But last week’s Sydney Morning Herald ran an article about Daisy Turnbull (the daughter of the Australian Federal opposition leader) and who she “allowed” to follow her on Twitter (like locking your account was somehow bad), and by then I knew that journalists had descended into “let’s write a story each day using the word Twitter” frenzy.  And this weekend’s Herald Good Weekend magazine carries an article about the Twitter founders themselves.

We talked a little about this in the office - we’d been using Twitter internally, and I’d just decided to open up my own tweets to the world as a sort of “public” face to Locatrix.  (We might yet add another Twitter account to better serve this purpose). Others were noticing that Twitter had somehow jumped the chasm into mainstream.

You could argue that Facebook, at 175 million and counting, had made this leap ages ago.  In fact, recent articles – including Fortune’s cover story on Mark Zuckerburg – suggested that Facebook has well and truly moved beyond the tech-savvy and Generation Y.  I have several of Uncles in my Facebook list, so I can attest to this fact.

This week, however, we’ve seen two interesting stories emerge.  One was apparent in light of media coverage of SXSW and the purported “domination” of that event by Twitter. Seems half the planet (or at least those attending the event in Texas) were attaching “#sxsw” to their Tweets to the point of saturation; there were suggestions of service and information overload, especially for those trying to access Twitter on their mobiles. (Oh, and the 1,382 percent growth of Twitter ). The second was a moderate (but quite valid) public backlash over Facebook’s new look. I’m not suggesting that much gloom for the Zuckerburg set, but it will be interesting to see if and how much their time-on-site metrics trend downwards in coming months.  (I’m know I’m using the new look site a lot less than I used the “old Facebook”).

Which leads me to the question in the title: Is Twitter the new Facebook?

My thesis is this: the simplest interaction with Facebook is the one-line status.  Mark is happy.  Mark is sad.  Mark is in London today.  Mark is working on a Series A funding round. All things I post to Facebook, all things I read about my friends (or those that care to post) which keeps me – to use the Zuckerburg vernacular – “connected”. For a lot of people, this is their only input into Facebook.

Twitter, on the other hand, is just this, only searchable – a nice feature.   No weird site redesigns, no getting used to applications only to have them disappear, no over the top legal agreements – and no constantly-changing restrictions on what you can and cannot do via the API – I know folks who never touch the Twitter site itself, updating and managing accounts via one of the many publicly available third-party tools, like Twhirl and Twitterberry (my tools of choice). So not only is the barrier to participation lowered to a bare minimum, its relatively open.

What remains to be seen is just how will Twitter (or any number of social networking services) create a sustainable business model. Their latest funding round leaves them cashed up going into a user upswing; from here its all about creating a model which doesn’t alienate existing users/fans, and old-fashioned execution.

Neither of which seems a strong point of the Facebook crew.

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